Only 80.6 per cent of the Rs 6-trillion allocation has been spent by February, data from the Controller General of Accounts shows.
In a major relief to Indian information technology (IT) companies operating in Australia, Canberra has agreed to amend its domestic laws to stop taxing offshore income of such Indian companies, as part of the free trade deal inked. This may lead to savings up to $200 million each year for over 100 Indian IT companies operating in Australia. "The Government of Australia has agreed to amend the domestic taxation law to stop the taxation of offshore income of Indian firms providing technical services to Australia. "This will resolve the issue that the Indian government has raised about the double taxation avoidance agreement (DTAA) between the two governments for the avoidance of double taxation and the prevention of fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on income," said a commerce ministry official.
Their implementation is expected to create investment owing to improving ease of doing business as well as initiating pro-worker measures.
If other states follow suit, it is going to become difficult for the GST Council to decide on the next stage of reforms.
India's potato and tomato production could be marginally less in 2021-22 as compared to the previous year while onion output could be almost 17 per cent more than last year. This was stated in the first advance estimate of horticulture production released on Monday. The government also said total horticulture production is estimated to be at 333.3 million tonnes, a slight decrease of about 1.35 million tonnes (mt)?(or 0.4 per cent) over 2020-21.
However, it may still not change its stance on the policy rate as inflationary pressures are coming from high commodity prices.
A decision to tap the 30 countries for exporting wheat was taken at a meeting of the commerce ministry on Thursday.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis, along with general bullishness in agricultural commodities, has ensured that after a fairly long time, most of the 24 commodities for which the Centre declares the minimum support price (MSP) are trading above it. The exceptions here are chana or gram and a few varieties of pulses. This might gladden the farmers, especially those who are still holding on to their stocks from the previous kharif harvest or are harvesting the latest rabi crop. But this could stoke retail and wholesale inflation.
India's opening stocks of wheat in the central pool are expected to be 19.5-20 million tonnes as on April 1, 2022, the lowest in the last three years, but much higher than the normative level required for maintaining a buffer and strategic reserve, trade and market sources said. In accordance with the buffer and strategic reserve norms, India should have a wheat stock of 7.5 million tonnes in the central pool as on April 1 each year and this year's stocks, though the lowest in the last three years, will still be over 160 per cent more than what is required. On the export front, both government and trade sources are unanimous that this year (FY22) they will be 7-7.25 million tonnes, a record, while in the next financial year, they might touch even 10 million tonnes if the current momentum is maintained.
India's wheat exports could touch a new record of 10 million tonnes in 2022-23, up from a record seven million tonnes in the current financial year, if global market conditions remain choppy and no curbs are imposed on outbound shipments. That is the bullish estimate by officials from global trading firms and market watchers who say the Russia-Ukraine crisis has not only attracted global buyers to India but also pushed the price of Indian wheat from around $320 per tonne (FOB) to over $360 per tonne in less than 10 days. Food secretary Sudhanshu Pandey told reporters that wheat exports till February-end have already reached 6.6 million tonnes and by the end of March, outbound shipments will reach seven million tonnes.
India's exports are unlikely to get an immediate boost from a depreciating rupee, which touched an all-time low on Monday, driven by rising commodity prices. The rupee fell to 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05 per cent weaker than the previous close. Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 on Monday at $139 per barrel, after the US and European allies explored a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the potential return of Iranian crude oil to global markets increased supply fears.
The apparel and engineering sectors have already witnessed the trend in the past one week. If this continues, it can have an impact on the overall export demand in the coming months, considering that Europe is the largest national export market for India.
Since January 2021, the inflation rate in health has stood in the range of 6.08-8.44 per cent.
India is looking to tap its diplomatic missions abroad to enable grain exporters in the country to ship out wheat and corn as supplies from Russia and Ukraine are expected to remain disrupted for some time to come. Between the two items, pushing for wheat is easier because of a huge domestic surplus. "We are hand holding our exporters and support from various Indian missions abroad is also being channelised accordingly," a senior government official said. Global wheat prices have jumped since the Ukraine crisis started, with wheat futures in the US reaching their highest levels since 2008.
In the three months leading up to the Assembly elections, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's government distributed over 1.4 million tonnes (MT) of wheat, 0.95 MT of rice, 0.10 MT of chana (gram), 101.9 million litres of soybean oil and 100,000 tonnes of salt as free ration. This was part of the Covid relief package, officials said.
The government may soon give the green light to bilateral trade between Russia and India in their national currencies to avoid any trade disruptions, multiple people aware of the matter said. While the Department of Commerce has recommended the proposal, an announcement is likely to be made by the finance ministry after further deliberations between the Department of Economic Affairs and Department of Financial Services. "The finance ministry will take a call on how to peg the two currencies," a senior government official told Business Standard. In the past, the two nations have had rupee-rouble trade, and when such an arrangement is implemented again, it will bypass the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West.
'We can go somewhere between 35 per cent and 40 per cent.'
Though early days, meteorologists point towards a neutral La Nina during the initial phase of the four-month monsoon season this year that starts from June. If this holds true, by the time the rains hit the mainland, it could mean there would be one less reason to worry about the prospects of the monsoon this year. Weathermen said making any accurate prediction of how El Nino will behave and what impact it can have on the progress and distribution of rains is difficult to say at this point. A clear picture will emerge around late May or early June.
'The signal is crude oil prices will rise, I am cutting my subsidy. Be prepared, prices will rise.'
Fitch Ratings on Monday cautioned that the Indian government has little fiscal headroom at its disposal to respond to possible shocks to growth given the country's lowest investment grade credit rating with a negative outlook. "India's public debt/GDP ratio, at about 87 per cent in FY21, is well above the median of around 60% for 'BBB' rated sovereigns. "We revised the Outlook on India's rating to Negative, from Stable, in June 2020, partly owing to our assumptions about the impact of the pandemic on public finance metrics. "The government has little fiscal headroom at its current rating level to respond to possible shocks to growth," it said in a report.
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